A recent poll indicates that over half of Canadians understand the sentiments driving Alberta's desire for independence, although nearly two-thirds oppose the idea. Conducted by Leger between May 16 and 18, the survey included 1,537 respondents and revealed that 55 per cent of Canadians empathize with Alberta's call for separation.
The online nature of the poll means that it cannot be assigned a margin of error. Among respondents, 70 per cent of Albertans expressed understanding for the desire for independence. The poll also highlighted a gender disparity; 63 per cent of men stated they comprehend the motivations behind Alberta's separatist movement, whereas only 48 per cent of women felt the same.
Political affiliation appears to play a significant role in perceptions of Alberta's separatism. A striking 77 per cent of Conservative voters reported understanding the reasons for the movement, while only 48 per cent of Liberal supporters echoed this sentiment. Sébastien Dallaire, the executive vice-president for Eastern Canada at Leger, noted that the survey reflects a degree of empathy among Canadians for the province's frustrations. Dallaire highlighted concerns tied to national unity, especially regarding how Alberta's separation could alter the dynamics within Canada, potentially reigniting discussions about Quebec seeking independence or inspiring other provinces to follow suit.
Despite a high level of understanding for Alberta's grievances, only 26 per cent of respondents expressed support for the province's potential independence. The figures break down further, with 12 per cent strongly supporting the idea and 15 per cent somewhat supportive. In contrast, a significant majority, 62 per cent, opposed the notion of separation entirely. Among those opposed, 50 per cent strongly opposed it while 13 per cent reported being somewhat opposed, and 11 per cent remained unsure.
Interestingly, among those who do support separation, a substantial 76 per cent acknowledge the rationale behind Alberta's independence aspirations. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently introduced legislation aimed at simplifying the process for initiating a referendum, including one focused on independence from Canada. Although she does not advocate for separation, Smith has cited growing sentiments of alienation within Alberta and frustrations with the federal government in Ottawa. She argued that proponents of independence should not be dismissed as fringe voices and has called for a new agreement with Prime Minister Mark Carney, underscoring the provincial grievances related to Alberta's natural resources being largely landlocked and its oil and gas exports being sold primarily to the United States at reduced rates.
Addtionally, the poll indicated that support for independence is notably stronger among Albertans, with 47 per cent in favor, compared to only 29 per cent of Quebecers, 22 per cent of Ontarians, and 14 per cent of those from British Columbia. Furthermore, while the sample size for Manitoba and Saskatchewan was smaller, 30 per cent of respondents from those provinces expressed support for Alberta’s independence. Political affiliations also influenced views, as 43 per cent of Conservative supporters were more open to separation, compared to just 12 per cent of Liberal supporters.
Dallaire emphasized that dissatisfaction stemming from the recent federal election may have fueled the discussions surrounding Alberta's independence. He observed that the poll results indicate significant division among Albertans regarding the separation issue. While support for independence might not be fully entrenched at this time, Dallaire cautioned that there is a clear potential for the movement to gain traction in the province. Historical precedents, such as previous referendums in Quebec, suggest that public opinion can shift considerably once residents are informed about the implications of separation. This evolving sentiment towards independence warrants careful monitoring, as future developments could either reinforce or diminish the current level of support.
The Canadian Research Insights Council has noted that online surveys are unable to provide a margin of error, as they do not utilize random population sampling.
