During the summer, Narek Nersisyan, the vice-president of sales and marketing at Holland Marsh Wineries in Newmarket, Ontario, reported a significant increase in visitors to the family-owned winery. The uptick in visitors was around 10 to 15 percent, attributed to more tourists and locals wanting to explore nearby tourism opportunities close to Toronto. Loyal customers also intensified their patronage, often purchasing the wines they loved while enjoying experiences such as tastings, charcuterie, and pizza on the winery's patio.
Nersisyan noted that customers have become more educated about local products, further fueling their interest in local experiences as part of the Buy Local movement. The movement gained momentum in March 2025 amid heightened tensions between Canada and the U.S., particularly when U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Canada could become the 51st state, along with imposing tariffs on Canadian goods. In response, Canada retaliated, resulting in a significant decline in sales of U.S. wines and liquors within Canadian markets.
Statistics from the California-based Wine Institute revealed a staggering 91 percent drop in U.S. wine sales in Canada during the second quarter of 2025, mirroring an 85 percent decrease in liquors and spirits sales. The total decline saw sales plummet from $63.1 million in 2024 to just $9.6 million in the same quarter of 2025. This drastic reduction in U.S. product availability opened new opportunities for Canadian wineries to fill the market gap.
“It’s unprecedented,” stated Karl Coutinho, the president of Wine Growers Nova Scotia. He acknowledged that while the tariff discussions are unwanted, they present a unique opportunity for Nova Scotia and the Nova Scotia Liquor Commission to support local wines more vigorously. Nevertheless, he highlighted that market share for Nova Scotia wines is still low – estimated at nine to ten percent of sales at the NSLC, with aspirations to reach 20 to 30 percent.
Jeff Guignard, the president of Wine Growers British Columbia, explained that while the removal of a major player like California opens opportunities, it also presents challenges in scaling production to meet increased demand. Guignard pointed out that some California wineries produce more wine individually than the total output of the entire Canadian wine region. He emphasized that the absence of U.S. wines allows Canadian wineries to discuss increasing their market share significantly, envisioning a potential 50 percent capture similar to other prominent wine-producing countries.
Despite the expectation that U.S. products will eventually return to Canadian shelves, Coutinho expressed hope that Canadian consumers, especially those in Nova Scotia, will continue to favor local wines even after the re-emergence of American options. He noted the positive trends in sales and customer loyalty during this period.
In addition to solidifying local consumer relationships, Canada has the potential to expand wine exports beyond the U.S. According to Maria Pechurina, director of international trade with Peacock Tariff Consulting, while Canada ranks as the U.S.’s top wine export market, the U.S. accounts for only the third-largest supply source for Canada, following France and Italy. Pechurina highlighted that Canada could mitigate losses from U.S. products by sourcing more wine from European countries and even capitalize on growth opportunities in Asian markets such as China and South Korea, where U.S. tariffs exceed 200 percent.
Winery owners like Nersisyan are focused on maintaining their new customer influx by fostering partnerships with local restaurants and establishing wine club memberships. Coutinho added that while they are not opposed to American wine, it should not dominate the market, emphasizing that the Canadian wine industry is equipped to meet customer demand effectively.
