KYIV, Ukraine (AP) – A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has revealed alarming projections regarding the toll of Russia's war on Ukraine. By spring, the cumulative number of soldiers killed, injured, or missing on both sides could reach an estimated 2 million. The report indicates that Russia has experienced the highest number of troop deaths for a major power in conflict since World War II, with Russian casualties estimated at 1.2 million, including up to 325,000 troop deaths, from February 2022 through December 2025.
The report, published just weeks shy of the fourth anniversary of Moscow's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, highlights the severe human cost of the conflict. With the war persisting through another bitter winter, recent Russian attacks have led to casualties, including two deaths and several injuries across Ukraine, particularly in Kyiv, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and the Zaporizhzhia region.
Despite assertions of battlefield momentum by Russia, the CSIS report argues that the country is incurring significant costs for minimal territorial gains and is experiencing a decline as a major power. It notes, “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.” For Ukraine, which has a smaller military and population, casualties are estimated to be between 500,000 and 600,000, with up to 140,000 confirmed deaths. This escalation in military losses comes amid a lack of timely data from both governments, each of which tends to exaggerate the other’s losses.
In response to the report, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the findings as non-reliable, stating only the Russian Ministry of Defense is authorized to disclose information regarding military losses. The ministry has not updated casualty figures since September 2022, when it reported close to 6,000 Russian soldier deaths. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed in a February 2025 interview that over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died since the war's inception.
The current total for combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may reach as high as 1.8 million, with projections suggesting the number could hit 2 million by the coming spring. These figures were compiled through a range of analyses including independent Russian news outlets, estimates from the British government, and interviews with officials.
Furthermore, extensive reporting on military losses has been suppressed within Russian media, as noted by activists and independent journalists. A collaboration between Mediazona and the BBC has resulted in the collection of names of over 160,000 Russian troops killed since the outbreak of the war, utilizing social media, government resources, and news reports.
In military strategy, Russian forces have been advancing slowly, with the report highlighting an average daily gain of just 15 to 70 meters in their significant offensives—a pace that is considered slower than almost any major military campaign in the last century. Analysts suggest that President Vladimir Putin is not pressing for a quick settlement, despite the evident difficulties faced by his army along the extensive 1,000-kilometer front line.
Moreover, on January 28, 2026, Russian strikes resulted in two casualties in the Kyiv region, with additional injuries reported across other parts of Ukraine. Ukraine's air force reported that Russian forces used one ballistic missile and 146 strike drones for the attacks, of which 103 were successfully intercepted or destroyed. In contrast, Russia's Ministry of Defense claimed its air defenses shot down 75 Ukrainian drones overnight, including numerous incidents over areas that are of strategic importance to both sides.
