HALIFAX - The population growth surge in Atlantic Canada has come to an end, with all four provinces experiencing a decline in residents by the end of 2025. Economic experts warn that this trend will exacerbate the financial difficulties faced by provincial governments already struggling with significant deficits.
Donald Savoie, a prominent public administration and economic development scholar from Université de Moncton, highlighted the negative implications of population loss for economic growth. "You don't grow an economy by losing population... so this is not a good sign," he stated in an interview. The region has a historical tendency of population decline, particularly noted between the 1950s and 1970s, when many workers migrated to other areas for better opportunities. This trend saw a reversal during the COVID-19 pandemic, as remote work and affordable housing attracted significant numbers of newcomers to the region.
According to Statistics Canada, Nova Scotia has gained over 100,000 residents since 2020, marking it as the first Atlantic province to surpass a million people. New Brunswick saw an increase of approximately 87,000 people, while Prince Edward Island gained 26,000 residents, and Newfoundland and Labrador recorded a growth of 22,000. However, this trend saw a dramatic shift in the fourth quarter of 2025, with New Brunswick losing 1,000 residents, marking the first decline since early 2017. Similarly, Nova Scotia recorded a population decrease of 1,400, and Newfoundland and Labrador saw a reduction of 200, its first drop since 2021. Prince Edward Island's population also declined, losing around 150 residents during the same period.
Despite these recent declines, all four provinces reported net population growth for the year. Savoie pointed out that the rapid population influx has placed considerable pressure on public institutions, such as schools and hospitals, which has led to increased complaints from constituents regarding service levels and sharply rising housing costs. In response to these challenges, the federal government has notably reduced the number of immigrants and international students allowed into Canada.
While Savoie acknowledges the merit in alleviating strains on public facilities and services, he emphasizes that the provinces cannot afford to halt economic growth. A silver lining is the emergence of a burgeoning entrepreneurial class in Atlantic Canada. "That growth - it's going to be difficult to put a stop sign to it," Savoie remarked. He expressed optimism about the growth he observes in entrepreneurship in the region, noting that it is unprecedented in his experience.
Lana Asaff, a senior economist with the Atlantic Economic Council, pointed out that the issues arise not solely from declines in immigration but also from reduced interprovincial migration and a declining birthrate. These dynamics are starkly illustrated by New Brunswick's recent fiscal update, which revealed a record deficit of $1.3 billion under Premier Susan Holt's administration. "We have lower tax revenues, for example, in income tax, HST, corporate tax, and all three of those are down in the New Brunswick fiscal update," Asaff detailed. An aging population also poses additional financial challenges as older adults require more health care services.
The region is focusing on expanding its economy through resource-based projects. Initiatives such as fast-tracking approval for the Sisso tungsten mine in New Brunswick, expanding offshore oil and gas development in Newfoundland and Labrador, and increasing mining and renewable energy projects in Nova Scotia are underway. However, these developments necessitate a skilled workforce.
Savoie asserted that creating job opportunities is vital to attracting residents back. "If we create opportunities, people will come," he noted, underscoring the region's rich natural resources. He urged the people of the Maritime provinces to make critical decisions regarding resource exploitation versus educational investments, stating, "That's where we're at. There's all kinds of opportunities in the Maritime provinces, and we're going to have to grab them."
This situation represents a pivotal moment for Atlantic Canada, as the region navigates economic pressures while grappling with shifting demographics and the need for sustainable growth strategies.
