During the El Niño climate pattern, Canada often experiences warmer temperatures. Currently, a strengthening 'super' El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is predicted to have significant impacts on the country in the upcoming months. CityNews chief meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai noted that this new El Niño could potentially be the strongest on record, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Ramsahai highlighted that the transition into this phase has been remarkably swift since spring, leading forecast models to struggle to keep pace. The primary effects are expected to be felt in western Canada, extending through the Prairies into northwestern Ontario, where warmer and drier winter conditions are anticipated, continuing through spring and into summer of 2027. This extreme weather pattern is predicted to result in little to no snowpack in many areas, which raises concerns about reduced snowmelt, decreased insulation, and an increased risk of wildfires and drought.
“I think this will be the most significant impact on a national scale regarding the El Niño phenomenon and its strength this winter,” Ramsahai stated.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a cyclical weather pattern that alternates approximately every two to seven years with La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-normal temperatures, and neutral conditions. Ramsahai explained that when trade winds are strong, they push warm water in the Pacific westward, allowing cooler water to rise near South America. Conversely, a relaxation of those winds permits warm water to spread across the central and eastern Pacific, significantly influencing global temperature and precipitation patterns, beyond what is already caused by climate change.
What’s fueling El Niño and its effects in Canada?
According to Ramsahai, regions such as Quebec and much of the Maritimes may experience cooler conditions this winter. A positive outcome from the early stages of this El Niño is the absence of any Atlantic hurricanes thus far, benefiting Atlantic Canada. In southern Ontario, the implications of El Niño could include a heightened likelihood of freezing rain and flooding, a shortened winter, a compressed ski season, and an extended shipping duration due to reduced ice on the Great Lakes. Furthermore, increased freeze-thaw cycles may lead to more potholes, with potential adverse effects on maple syrup and ice wine production if temperatures do not drop sufficiently. However, these scenarios remain subject to change due to the volatile nature of weather patterns.
According to NOAA forecasts, there is more than a 90 percent probability that this historical El Niño event will reach its peak in winter, with possible effects lasting through March to May 2027. For a 'super' designation of El Niño, the sea surface temperature must be 2°C or more above average in the designated Pacific Ocean zone. As of August, the temperature was noted to be between 1.89°C to 2°C above average, with the current record being 2.4°C above the average (measured in 1982-1983). Some projections indicate that temperatures could rise to between 3°C and 4°C this winter.
Furthermore, meteorological observations made mid-September suggested that El Niño conditions were helping to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Ramsahai noted that the first major hurricanes of previous seasons, namely in 2002 and 2013, had both commenced on September 11, marking them as the latest starts since the beginning of satellite tracking in 1966. As of September 16 of this year, no major hurricanes had formed, indicating a significant deviation from typical seasonal patterns.
