Havana is set to welcome its first shipment of Russian oil this year as the country grapples with severe power outages caused by a crumbling power grid. This development follows the Cuban government's announcement that it has been operating on a combination of natural gas, solar power, and thermoelectric plants in light of the ongoing energy crisis. The Russian-flagged tanker, Anatoly Kolodkin, is currently approximately 3,000 nautical miles from Cuba and is expected to reach the island within ten days, according to Jorge Piñón, an expert at the University of Texas Energy Institute.
This anticipated shipment would mark the first arrival of oil from any country to Cuba in three months, amid a stringent U.S. energy blockade. The tanker is carrying 730,000 barrels of fuel and is on the sanctions list enforced by the United States, European Union, and the United Kingdom due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Piñón stated. The expert noted the challenges in estimating how long this quantity would sustain Cuba, as it consists of crude oil that must be refined into usable fuels. He suggested that this shipment could potentially produce around 180,000 barrels of diesel, sufficient to meet Cuba's daily demand for approximately nine to ten days.
Additionally, another vessel, the Hong Kong-flagged Sea Horse, is reported to be transporting about 200,000 barrels of diesel to Cuba. Piñón emphasized that Cuba’s daily diesel consumption is roughly 20,000 barrels, making the Sea Horse’s cargo insufficient to cover overall demand given the island's low storage levels. The anticipated use of this fuel is likely to support critical sectors like transportation and agriculture. The Sea Horse is currently about 958 nautical miles from Matanzas, Cuba, and Piñón suggested it would take around four days to reach its destination.
Efforts to track the exact location of these vessels have been complicated by the fact that some ships disable their satellite tracking devices amid international sanctions and threats of U.S. military intervention. If confirmed, the arrival of either tanker would mark the first shipment of Russian oil this year, with the last detected shipment being made on January 9 by the Ocean Mariner, which transported 85,000 barrels from Mexico.
Moreover, Gen. Francis Donovan, head of the U.S. Southern Command, recently testified before the Senate about a Russian destroyer accompanied by an oil replenishment ship expected to call at Cuba. Donovan indicated that even if the oiler offloads its cargo, it would not substantially alleviate Cuba's oil supply issues. He clarified that his command is not planning military intervention in Cuba and is primarily focused on protecting the U.S. Embassy and military base in Guantanamo Bay, although it remains prepared for potential migration or humanitarian crises in the Caribbean.
Currently, Cuba produces only about 40% of its petroleum needs, with the remainder sourced from countries like Russia, Mexico, and Venezuela. However, critical shipments from Venezuela have been halted following U.S. actions against the South American nation and the arrest of its leader, Nicolás Maduro, who has been a crucial ally for Cuba. U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on any nation supplying oil to Cuba, further complicating the situation. Recently, Mexico stopped its oil shipments to Cuba, contributing to the island’s escalating energy crises, which have resulted in blackouts lasting up to ten hours and significantly disrupted transportation and economic activities.
The worsening energy crisis has led to increased protests and a substantial decline in tourism, which was once a vital source of income for the island. The combination of tightened U.S. sanctions, the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and internal financial reforms have all contributed to the current severe economic situation in Cuba. Reports indicate that food and medicine shortages have become commonplace, and there has been a noticeable increase in emigration among young and skilled workers fleeing to the U.S., Mexico, and Europe.
In an attempt to alleviate the situation, European activists recently delivered over four tons of medical supplies to Cuba, and Brazil has pledged to send 20,000 tons of food, including rice, beans, and powdered milk. A flotilla carrying humanitarian aid, including solar panels and medical supplies, is also expected to arrive soon, with notable participants, including British Parliamentarian Jeremy Corbyn. Organizers have conducted risk assessments to prepare for any unexpected responses from the U.S. government amid these ongoing challenges.
