Recent public opinion polling indicates that Doug Ford and his Conservative Party are losing favor among Ontarians. A new survey by Liaison Strategies reveals that the Ontario Liberals have garnered 38 percent support, which is two points ahead of the Conservative Party, suggesting a significant shift in voter sentiment.
The poll highlights that the Ontario Liberals are leading significantly in urban areas, with 44 percent support in Toronto and 43 percent in the 905 region. Additionally, the Conservatives are trailing behind the New Democratic Party (NDP) in regions such as South Central Ontario, Hamilton, and Niagara, further complicating their standing in the province.
Despite still holding a degree of support in southwestern Ontario, where Doug Ford enjoys some backing, eastern Ontario remains a stronghold for the Conservatives, with 45 percent approval. However, overall trends in public support show a decline for the party, particularly since October, driven in part by the fallout from a recent controversy involving the purchase of a private jet.
David Valentin, a principal at Liaison Strategies, notes that the ongoing discontent about living costs, including grocery prices and hydro rates, has contributed to the public's negative perception of Ford. The controversy surrounding the acquisition of a used Challenger 650 jet for nearly $30 million, intended for the Premier's travel across Ontario, Canada, and the United States, has particularly struck a nerve with the electorate. This incident has been referred to as 'the gravy plane' and has sparked significant backlash.
In response to the uproar, Ford announced the decision to sell the jet, claiming he "heard loud and clear" from the people of Ontario that purchasing the aircraft at this time was inappropriate. The polling data reveals that a majority, 62 percent, believe Ford's decision to sell the jet stemmed from political pressure rather than genuine intent, with less than 30 percent feeling that his actions were sincere.
Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser has openly criticized Ford's actions, highlighting the disconnect between his lavish spending on a private jet and the financial struggles faced by families in Ontario. Fraser remarked, "The man of the people who buys a private jet when families are hurting," emphasizing how the issue resonates with constituents during routine encounters, such as walking in the park.
Beyond the controversies surrounding the private jet, Ford's overall approval ratings are troubling. While many still describe his leadership style as "strong and decisive," more than 60 percent of respondents disapprove of his handling of the province's affairs. Furthermore, approximately two-thirds of those surveyed feel that Ontario is heading in the wrong direction under his leadership.
Valentin cautions that the negative sentiment towards Ford may have long-lasting implications, as voters who turn against politicians often do not return to support them. He poses a critical question about whether the Conservatives can regain lost ground or if the trend of declining support will continue.
As the next Ontario general election is not scheduled until April 2030, barring any early calls by the Premier as he did last February, the coming months will be crucial for the Conservative Party. The dynamics of public opinion suggest that the road ahead could be challenging for Ford and his team as they seek to rebuild trust and regain support.
