TORONTO (AP) In 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has significantly raised his global profile, particularly by opposing U.S. President Donald Trump. Speculations circulating among prediction-market traders and his supporters suggest that Carney might have a shot at winning both the Nobel Peace Prize and Time magazine’s Person of the Year by the end of the year.
On Monday, Carney's odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize soared to 14% on Kalshi, a prediction market based in the U.S., making him a short-lived favorite. However, these odds fluctuated later, highlighting the speculative nature of such betting.
While there is no public information confirming Carney's presence on the Nobel Committee's secret shortlist for the upcoming award announcement on October 9 in Oslo, Norway, the growing excitement around his potential nomination underscores a notable message: middle powers must unite to defend their sovereignty against the rising influence of great powers.
The resonance of Carney's stance with the Nobel Committee remains uncertain; however, it is clear that both the Nobel Prize and Time's annual honors are awards that Trump covets. The former U.S. president has openly expressed his belief that he deserves a Nobel Prize, claiming in July that he "should have won that award more than anybody."
Political experts anticipate that if Carney were to win the Nobel, it would evoke a furious response from Trump. According to Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, "If this ever happens, I would love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office to see the president’s face when he learns about it." In a twist of fate, Trump already possesses a Nobel medal, awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who presented it to him at the White House in January.
Commentators suggest that if Carney were awarded the Nobel Prize, it could further complicate U.S.-Canada relations, which are already strained due to Trump’s rhetoric and retaliatory trade measures, including a 50% tariff on billions of dollars of Canadian goods.
On the other hand, Carney is also a strong contender for Time’s Person of the Year. The publication has previously recognized him as one of its 100 most influential people of 2026, attributing his rising popularity to his confrontation with Trump. Currently, he ranks as the second choice in major prediction markets for the award, trailing New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The designation is set to be announced on December 10.
Time has criticized Trump’s leadership for fostering a "new global order" shaped more by individual will than by established systems or institutions. In contrast, Carney encourages middle powers to collaborate rather than succumb individually. NYU professor Scott Galloway has asserted, "I believe, hands down, Time’s Person of the Year has already been decided and it’s going to be Mark Carney."
Carney's public influence surged following his address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last January. There, he posited that the old international order is irretrievably lost and called for middle nations to unite in response, just as many European leaders were dealing with Trump’s aggressive policies, including his attempt to acquire Greenland and impose tariffs.
His advocacy for a new global framework has continued to gain traction, leading Canada closer to European alliances and exploring partnerships in Asia amidst the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. Recently, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed allowing Canada to become the European Union’s first associate member, further solidifying Carney's stance in international politics.
Experts agree that Carney’s prominence on the world stage has been fueled by his resistance against Trump, distinguishing him from European and Asian leaders who have rushed to accommodate the U.S. president’s demands. Political science professor Nelson Wiseman highlights this dynamic, stating, "Trump’s pressure on Canada has helped elevate Carney in the eyes of the world."
