Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith faced a setback in his political ambitions as he lost the provincial nomination race on Saturday in Scarborough Southwest. This defeat hinders his path towards potentially leading the Ontario Liberals.
In a decisive vote, Ontario Liberal members in Scarborough Southwest selected business owner Ahsanul Hafiz as their candidate for an upcoming byelection. Erskine-Smith, who currently represents the federal riding of Beaches-East York, had expressed a desire to secure a seat in the Ontario legislature, possibly as a precursor to launching a bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership.
The results of the nomination race were particularly close, with Erskine-Smith narrowly losing by a mere 19 votes out of over 1,400 cast. In the aftermath of the vote, he cited concerns about the conduct of the nomination process, claiming that “there was a ton of scrutineers in there” and raising issues regarding voter identification. Despite these claims, Erskine-Smith's chief scrutineers had approved the results.
Ahsanul Hafiz responded to Erskine-Smith's allegations by asserting the legitimacy of the process. He noted that the hallways during the nomination were full of supporters wearing Hafiz badges, which he saw as clear evidence of his victory. Hafiz emphasized that he believed the Ontario Liberal Party managed the nomination process effectively.
Complications arose from Erskine-Smith’s last-minute video featuring Prime Minister Mark Carney, who indicated he hoped to see Erskine-Smith serving the Scarborough community. This move drew some resentment from fellow candidates, who viewed it as an attempt to leverage the local community for personal political gain. Both Hafiz and Qadira Jackson, another contestant, had previously agreed to support each other as a strategic measure during the ranked ballot process.
Qadira Jackson, who was the Liberal candidate for Scarborough Southwest in the last election, expressed her discontent at facing a nomination battle this time. She remarked that it is uncommon for previous candidates to encounter such challenges when seeking to run again. Jackson stated that her preference was for a “local” candidate to represent the riding and articulated a desire for the community not to be exploited politically.
In response to comments about his residence, Erskine-Smith pointed out that Hafiz had not lived in Scarborough Southwest for a significant portion of his life. Hafiz, originally from London, Ontario, mentioned that he has connections to Scarborough, having first arrived in Canada nearly 25 years ago.
Looking ahead, Hafiz must now prepare for the byelection that Premier Doug Ford is required to call by summer. The Liberal Party previously placed third in Scarborough Southwest during the last election, which presents a challenging context for Hafiz as he begins his campaign. He likened the nomination process to a semi-final, stating, “Now we have to play final,” thus emphasizing the importance of the upcoming byelection.
Premier Doug Ford has yet to announce an official date for the byelection, which must occur prior to August. The Progressive Conservatives have yet to nominate a candidate for the seat, while Fatima Shaban will be aiming to retain it for the NDP.
The Ontario Liberal leadership race currently features two official contenders: caucus member and former hospital president Lee Fairclough, and strategist Dylan Marando. Additionally, several other potential candidates are contemplating their bids, including former federal cabinet minister Navdeep Bains, caucus member Rob Cerjanec, and housing advocate Eric Lombardi. This leadership contest follows the resignation of Bonnie Crombie earlier this year and marks the fourth leadership change for the party since 2018.
