Canadian manufacturers, who have been significantly impacted by tariffs, express optimism following the U.S. midterm election results, viewing them as a potential turning point in the ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the United States. Business leaders are hopeful that the Democratic resurgence in Congress may facilitate an end to trade tensions that have hindered exports, increased costs, and forced companies to restructure their supply chains.
Jean Simard, the president and chief executive of the Aluminum Association of Canada, indicated a heightened sense of optimism after the election, stating that the results send a clearer message than he anticipated. He believes this shift could pressure Washington into rolling back tariffs and accelerating trade negotiations. Simard noted that Canada produces approximately 3.3 million tonnes of aluminum annually, with about 90 percent exported, primarily to the United States. However, U.S. tariffs have forced producers to redirect shipments to Europe instead.
Similarly, the Canadian steel industry is grappling with U.S. tariffs that reach as high as 50 percent. Blair Dickerson, president and chief executive of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, cautioned that a change in political dynamics does not automatically translate to alterations in U.S. trade policy. Nonetheless, she remains encouraged by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s optimistic remarks regarding progress in Canada-U.S. trade talks, emphasizing the need for a fair and predictable trading relationship to foster growth in the Canadian steel sector.
The unpredictability of U.S.-Canada trade relations continues to pose significant challenges for business owners. Marc Lecours, the owner of Preferred CNC and Michmar Engineering in Windsor, Ontario, highlighted the difficulties in making business decisions amidst fluctuating regulations, which, in turn, makes planning investments and managing costs particularly challenging. He pointed out that tariffs have compelled his companies to source American steel and aluminum, consequently driving up expenses and resulting in layoffs. Lecours believes the election outcomes may present an opportunity to improve trade relations and address previous damages.
Other Canadian manufacturers report that the trade dispute has already adversely affected their exports and competitiveness, intensifying demands for a resolution. Darrin Noble, president and chief operating officer of Cloverdale Paint based in Surrey, British Columbia, expressed that the election outcomes provide hope for manufacturers grappling with U.S. tariffs. He remarked that U.S. tariffs have rendered their products less competitive in the American market, endangering their export business. Although tariff relief was granted for steel paint cans, other supplies still face duties that escalate costs for Canadian consumers.
Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, shared on social media that he hopes the election results prompt Washington to pursue a lasting trade agreement with Canada. He suggested that these results highlight growing affordability concerns among voters in border states and the Midwest, noting that 87 percent of Canadian small businesses advocate for a quick resolution to the trade dispute.
However, Andreas Schotter, a professor of international business at the Ivey Business School, cautioned against expecting a substantial shift in U.S. trade policy. He stated that even among Democrats, there remains a strong "America First" sentiment, and businesses should not anticipate an immediate return to full Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) terms. CUSMA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020.
Historically, Canada was mostly exempt from the 10 percent U.S. aluminum tariffs enforced during Donald Trump's initial term. In March 2025, these tariffs were escalated to 25 percent, and later to 50 percent in June. Simard mentioned that Canada’s three principal aluminum producers—Rio Tinto, Alcoa, and Aluminerie Alouette—initially continued to fulfill orders for American clients despite tariffs before redirecting supplies to Europe. He reported that since March 2025, Canadian producers had exported about 800,000 tonnes of aluminum to Europe, a stark increase from the typical 100,000 tonnes during normal market conditions. This strategy has helped maintain production levels without necessitating layoffs or reduced operations.
