WASHINGTON (AP) – President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that there will be no military strikes against Iran before the upcoming United States midterm elections scheduled for November 3. During his campaign activities, Trump has suggested he is optimistic about achieving a resolution to the ongoing war within days surrounding the election while keeping the option of resuming military operations on the table.
For several weeks, Trump has indicated that an escalation in the military conflict following the midterm elections is a possible course of action, diverging from his initial promises of a brief military campaign. In a social media post, he firmly stated that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” He also mentioned that his team has been engaging in "productive discussions" with the Iranian government.
Earlier in June, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary agreement meant to establish a 60-day ceasefire and outline the groundwork for a lasting peace deal. However, this deal, which involved Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, disintegrated within weeks amid renewed hostilities and ongoing disputes over the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's oil was transported before the onset of war.
Nevertheless, negotiations appeared to be stalled as Trump recently rejected Iran’s proposal aimed at reopening the strait within seven days, contingent on U.S. compliance with specific conditions. In contrast, Iran claimed to have received a U.S. counterproposal last week, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed anticipation that Tehran would provide a formal response shortly.
Speaking during a rally in San Antonio, Texas, Trump mentioned that special envoy Steve Witkoff has maintained indirect discussions with Iranian officials. Despite this, he indicated uncertainty about concluding the conflict at this juncture, stating, “I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do, but they’re willing to offer us anything to stop.”
Trump believes the U.S. is gaining leverage in the situation, with military operations assisting in ensuring the safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, while a blockade has hindered Iran’s own oil exports. U.S. Central Command has reportedly been escorting oil tankers through the strait under the cover of night, significantly reducing Iran's control over oil traffic in the region.
However, Iran has recently increased attacks on tankers navigating the strait. Overall vessel traffic has not yet returned to prewar levels, and shipments of liquid natural gas and fuel remain low. Shipping analysts report that tanker operators willing to brave the situation under U.S. protection are charging exorbitant rates, sometimes exceeding $1 million per day.
The geopolitical tension has been compounded by the military initiatives undertaken by Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government to drive out Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another key maritime route for oil and goods. In retaliation, the Houthis have targeted Saudi infrastructure, including airports, with drone and missile strikes.
Trump’s announcement coincided with the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln in San Diego following a prolonged deployment in support of the Iran war, amidst reports of stress and mental health issues among the crew, as well as supply shortages. Presently, the USS George Washington has taken over operations in the Middle East, while the USS George H.W. Bush is currently deployed after a six-month tour.
