WASHINGTON (AP) – In order to broker a deal with Iran aimed at reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump may have to embrace an uncommon approach for him: compromise. The prospect of making concessions poses a significant challenge for the Republican president, who has repeatedly dismissed concerns regarding his declining poll numbers, a slow economy, and the reduced inventories of key weapons following the Iran conflict he initiated with Israel over five months ago.
Eliot Cohen, a former counselor at the State Department during George W. Bush's administration, commented, “He divides the world into winners and losers, and this would make him a loser. The image of being a loser, I think, would be intolerable for him.” The central issue remains control over the Strait of Hormuz, which typically facilitates the passage of 20% of the world's oil. While both the U.S. and Iranian officials have indicated that a deal is imminent, the Trump administration has firmly rejected any commitment that would solidify Iran's control over this strategic waterway, including provisions that would enable Tehran to levy fees.
Iran has countered by demanding some level of control, asserting that the strait will not revert to its status as an open international waterway as it was prior to the conflict. Despite experiencing thousands of U.S. strikes, Iranian forces retain the capability to target vessels with drones and missiles, effectively exerting a chokehold over commercial shipping in the area.
Cohen noted that conceding to Iran would be a substantial difficulty for Trump, even in light of ongoing concerns about elevated gasoline prices and the potential repercussions for the Republican party in the upcoming November midterm elections. However, David Schenker, who previously served in the State Department during Trump’s first term, indicated that growing economic pressures might compel the president to make concessions regarding the strait, despite the likely significant ramifications for global trade.
Schenker stated, “There will be a lot of spin both ways, but my guess is that the president has tipped his hand as to the urgency for him of resolving the crisis. This is a concession he may very well be willing to make.”
Meanwhile, Trump has largely refrained from acknowledging the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict. He emphasized on social media that the U.S. military possesses “massive amounts” of weaponry, asserting that production is ongoing. He threatened legal action against alleged “leakers” who disclosed information related to the country's armament status. This comment followed a report from the Washington Post detailing his dissatisfaction with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth regarding the depleting stockpiles of advanced weaponry, leading to discussions in the Cabinet meeting at Camp David.
A senior official within the administration acknowledged a “robust and healthy” discussion about Iran but refused to provide further specifics, except to clarify that there had been no "knock-down, drag-out fight" on the matter. Experts indicate that the U.S. military is facing shortages of critical weaponry such as advanced missile interceptors, which are essential for defending American forces against Iranian attacks. Reports published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies have highlighted this concerning trend based on budget assessments and publicly available data.
When pressed on the issue of weapons stocks, Trump told reporters that “we need more all the time.” He indicated that certain types of munitions are in “virtually unlimited supply,” although others are “a little bit tighter” without providing specific details. Trump maintains that the U.S. military is in excellent condition yet still seeks additional resources. He noted the military could draw on U.S. munitions stored globally if necessary.
Hegseth has been engaging with Republican senators on Capitol Hill, advocating for billions in additional defense spending as part of a significant GOP budget package. Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona and former Navy pilot, suggested that the arms shortfall resulted from a conflict marked by poorly defined goals and strategies, leading to an extensive target list.
Trump has also made dubious claims regarding his polling metrics, stating that his approval ratings are the highest they have “ever been.” He pointed to accomplishments such as robust employment figures and the alleged “Denuclearization of Iran.” However, a recent survey indicated that about two-thirds of Americans believe the conflict with Iran has been unjustified, encompassing a wide consensus among Democrats, independents, and approximately 37 percent of Republicans.
Despite the ongoing claims of restored shipping conditions, Trump noted that, while the Strait of Hormuz is “sort of open right now,” the threat from Iran's tactics, including mining operations, poses persistent risks. He acknowledged that aggressive actions could deter shipping and that several vessels recently experienced incidents or threats near the strait.
U.S. and Iranian representatives have reported nearing an agreement to reestablish operations in the strait, even as the U.S. military asserts that the strait remains accessible through a route it supervises by Oman’s coast, emphasizing that it “remains free and open” for commercial shipping. However, the potential arrangement is viewed as temporary, allowing for Iranian oversight of one entry and Omani control over exit routes without tolls or fees, directly contradicting Trump's administration's position against any arrangement permitting Iran to impose charges.
