Little has changed at Queen's Park following the by-elections held on Thursday, where Ontario's Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives and the Opposition New Democrats retained their seats in three significant contests.
In the Hamilton East–Stoney Creek riding, Progressive Conservative candidate Jeff Beattie, a seasoned city councillor from Hamilton, won by securing nearly 39 percent of the vote. His main rival, Monique Taylor from the NDP, garnered 33 percent. Taylor had previously served as the provincial representative in a neighboring riding for 14 years before resigning in pursuit of a failed federal seat bid. Liberal candidate Heino Doessing came in third, receiving 23 percent of the vote.
In another riding, York–Simcoe, Conservative Susan Lahey emerged victorious with 49.8 percent of the votes, defeating Liberal candidate Naomi Davison, who received 38.8 percent. Lahey succeeds Caroline Mulroney, the former Treasury Board president, who resigned from her position in June. Notably, this riding has been consistently held by Conservative candidates since its establishment in 2007.
Premier Ford congratulated both Beattie and Lahey for their wins, emphasizing that voters have endorsed the party committed to standing against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At Beattie’s campaign celebration in Hamilton, Ford stated, “We’re going to continue to fight... We’re going to make sure that we protect people’s jobs, protect their communities and protect them.”
Beattie expressed his gratitude, stating that it is “the honor of a lifetime” to represent constituents at the provincial level. He emphasized the anxiety felt by the community regarding their largest trading partner to the south and declared his commitment to becoming a champion for Hamilton East–Stoney Creek in uncertain times.
In Scarborough Southwest, a two-way race took place predominantly between the Liberals and New Democrats, with NDP’s Fatima Shaban winning by over 40 percent of the votes. During her victory speech, she assured voters of her dedication to “fight like hell” to make their lives more affordable, highlighting that affordability is a necessity and not merely an afterthought.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles celebrated her party's success, stating, “It is more clear than ever before in these three byelections, these historic three byelections, that there is only one party that is going to defeat Doug Ford and the Conservatives, and it is the New Democratic Party.”
Candidates reported that long-standing provincial issues—such as health care, education, and affordability—were prominent topics as they campaigned. Concerns over Canada’s ongoing trade conflict with the United States were also significant among voters. Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, noted that the escalating trade tensions may have worked in favor of Ford during these byelections, as voters often look to leadership during challenging times. Graefe pointed out this trend may have been particularly pronounced in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, where the repercussions of steel tariffs could be felt more directly.
Despite the political victories, Ford’s government has faced various scandals, including his controversial decision to procure a private jet for nearly $29 million, which was returned shortly after public outcry. Furthermore, there has been criticism regarding the hospitality expenses for Toronto-area ministers, which resulted in the resignation of Tourism Minister Stan Cho and caused other legislators to reimburse the expenditures. Graefe ultimately remarked that, while the by-elections may be seen as minor contests held during the summer before a long weekend, they still represent a positive outcome for Doug Ford and his government.
According to unofficial results from Elections Ontario, the voter turnout across all three by-elections was slightly above 25 percent.
