TORONTO – The ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States, particularly the latest round of tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump, is significantly impacting the political landscape as Ontario prepares for three provincial byelections. Candidates are raising various provincial issues during their campaigns, but the ramifications of the trade disputes and contentious discussions over the naming of Lake Ontario are central concerns among voters.
Despite these pressing matters, candidates noted that perennial issues such as affordability, hallway healthcare, and educational challenges continue to resonate with the electorate. As the byelections approach, Liberal candidates are banking on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s favorable approval ratings and the strength of the federal Liberal brand, while Progressive Conservatives (PC) are optimistic that Premier Doug Ford’s tough rhetoric towards Trump will bolster their chances.
In the competitive Hamilton East–Stoney Creek riding, the contest is poised to be closely contested following the retirement of Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Neil Lumsden in August. Traditionally a stronghold for the New Democratic Party (NDP), Hamilton has seen the Progressive Conservatives investing considerable resources to turn the city's political tide. Lumsden, a former Canadian Football League player, won the seat from the NDP in the 2022 election.
Jeff Beattie, a veteran city councillor, is seeking the Conservative nomination and is expected to face challenges from the NDP’s Monique Taylor and Liberal candidate Heino Doessing. Taylor, who previously represented the adjoining riding of Hamilton Mountain from 2011 to 2022 before her resignation to pursue a federal seat, is now campaigning in the area where she grew up. She emphasizes her experience at Queen's Park to gain voter trust, noting, “It’s a tight race, but we’re the ones who can beat the conservatives and people are definitely seeing that.”
Concerns regarding Trump’s tariffs are keenly felt in Hamilton, a city with a prominent steel industry. Taylor expressed her constituents' fears about the potential economic impact, stating, “Folks are definitely going to feel the brunt of tariffs, especially in a steel factory town.” Meanwhile, Premier Ford has dismissed calls from opposition parties to reconvene the legislature to address tariff-related issues.
Heino Doessing, who secured 30 percent of the vote in the last election against Lumsden, believes that Carney's popularity will benefit the Liberal Party's performance. Reflecting on his experience as a municipal councilman in Denmark before settling in Canada, Doessing stated, “The gap between first and second place is narrowing quite substantially,” alluding to voter fatigue over the controversies surrounding Ford’s administration. He cited incidents such as Ford's controversial decision to purchase a nearly $29 million private jet, which was subsequently returned amidst public backlash, and the scandal involving Toronto-area ministers using taxpayer funds for local hotel stays.
Supporters of the Progressive Conservative Party are hopeful that the premier’s assertive stance regarding Trump will favor candidate Beattie. Laryssa Waler, founder and CEO of Henley Strategies, believes that Ford’s position has resonated with Hamilton voters, especially given the town's steel manufacturing background. Waler predicts a competitive race among the three parties in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek.
In Scarborough Southwest, another seat in contention, the New Democrats aim to maintain their foothold following Doly Begum's resignation in February to join the federal Liberals. Ahsanul Hafiz, a businessman and the Liberal candidate, claims that voters are currently satisfied with the Liberal brand under Carney. He argues that the Liberals represent the most viable alternative to Ford, while the NDP’s Fatima Shaban is positioned as his main competition.
Shaban, who recently campaigned federally, has also been voicing her need for transparency regarding a proposed data center project in Scarborough. She emphasizes her financial background with the Salvation Army, promising to bring accountability to Queen's Park.
The final byelection is in York-Simcoe, formerly held by Caroline Mulroney since 2018. PC candidate Susan Lahey, who is currently a town councillor in East Gwillimbury, will contest against the Liberals' Naomi Davison and NDP’s Bobby Nikmard.
As voters prepare to cast their ballots on Thursday, the stakes are high, and the results will likely reflect the multifaceted concerns surrounding provincial leadership, economic pressures, and the ongoing fallout from Canada's trade tensions with the United States.
